Far away places with strange sounding names...

Most British holidaymakers know what sort of holiday they want.

If its sun, sea and sangria, then they will never be persuaded to go jungle trekking. So, for the main holiday, Barbados has to compete with Jamaica and the Costa Brava with The Algarve. Yet every destination offers differences even within these parameters.

Tenerife attracts different sorts of tourists than Menorca. Knowing who your best prospects are should be easily determined. In reality it appears to be difficult. Try finding out the differences between destinations on the same shortlist for yourself.

A simple graph comprised of prospects opinion of relative merits of different destinations is shown below. It is small in scale but makes our point.

Click to enlarge the chart below

Then consider New Zealand and Australia. Their distance from the UK make the travel an onerous experience and a promise of 'The pure Country' or 'The land of wonder' will not make up for the long boring journey. These countries attract relatively small number of British tourists. However they stay for an average of six and a half weeks. A safe guess would be that this long stay can only be afforded by time rich holiday takers such as the retired older folk and gap year young people. You will not find any mention of these prospects in their advertisements.

Another factor for countries that once provided immigrants to Britain is the lure of familiar things. India does attract a few Anglo Saxons. However, about one third of UK residents who travel to India have Indian passports and it is a safe bet that a sizeable number of visitors who are British now, were originally from the sub-continent. For them ‘The incredible country’ is not a justification.

A common language, familiar food and culture should be promoted more strongly in advertising for Canada and the USA.

Success in tourism advertising comes when you understand the importance of identifying your prospects and then find exciting and relevant ways to express your differences.

Recession proofing

Some brands do well even in a recession.

Expensive prestige brands do so because their reputation has been cultivated over the years to rich people who are largely unaffected by our economic malaise. Witness Burberry’s success or the queues at Fortnum’s and Mason.

Some brands, in a stagnant or declining market do well, because they win share from their rivals by providing innovation, good design, competitive pricing and excellent service.

And some relatively inexpensive brands benefit from the lipstick factor, otherwise referred to the feel good mood they engender.Women buy and use lipstick because it makes them happy. And it is relatively cheap.

Most successful brands are promoted. The better ones identify their desirable unique characteristics. Patek Phillipe sells on the basis of longevity and investment value.

The adage about building a better mousetrap misses an important point. The world will beat a path to your door only if you tell them about your invention.

This recession has made people question whether they actually need a product. They will make a purchase if a good logical reason is provided to enhance the emotional tug of the brand.

Good advertising can do that.

Truth, half lies and downright dishonesty

The world is full of liars. Politicians lie. Bankers and businessmen are economical with the truth and most people tell fibs, at least some of the time.

Advertising has a mixed reputation. Post war movies like the Hucksters showed how difficult it was to attain success in advertising whilst retaining integrity. Kirk Douglas in Elia Kazan’s The Arrangement showed the shallow world of advertising agencies, with Douglas selling an advertising pitch for ‘Zephyr’ cigarettes. In Britain though we have the code of advertising practice, which contains the principle that all advertising must be Legal, decent, honest and truthful. This is supported by a raft of legislation and monitoring bodies; so surely all our own advertising must be above criticism.

However advertisements for short term loans, with interest rates in excess of 4000% cannot be decent and some of these commercials appear to have by-passed the need to show the APR details. A cleverly cut commercial showing a vacuum cleaner gliding across the room with no visible electric cord is misleading. Snake oil adverts promising eternally rejuvenating skin, spend millions of pound on advertising that cannot surely be completely honest.

Occasionally you spot an advertisement that you believe. This one is a 60 second commercial for Hiscox insurance.

There is a new light.

VO: Male: Reassuring.

“It’s not hard to view the world as something beautiful. But somehow broken. Institutions have let us down. And today, it seems, a person’s word has lost its worth. Yet if the fading of these values disturbs us, then surely they must still matter. We still admire honesty and fairness. Whatever you choose to call it, honour is still at the heart of how most of us try to live our lives. At Hiscox, we exist to make good in times of loss and give our word that we will be there when you need us. If you believe that business can still be done on the strength of a handshake and that promises are still worth keeping then you are, most definitely, not alone. Hiscox Insurance: as good as our word.”

A confident promise that rings true and wonderful copy too.
Why can’t more advertisements be as good?
And as honest?

Like the curates egg, the news is good in parts

Let’s taste the medicine first. Air X Asia has announced that it is pulling out of Europe at the end of March. They blame the torpid European economy, high oil prices, the European carbon-trading scheme and Britain’s airline passenger duty. All these factors may help justify their withdrawal but some aviation experts expressed doubts about the business viability of the low cost, long haul concept.

The latest Overseas Travel and Tourism report for Quarter 3, 2011 suggests that the travel numbers whilst significantly down since 2008, haven't got any worse since the slump in 2009/10. This despite oil prices, APD, natural disasters and political revolution. Visits abroad by UK residents is 19% lower than in 2008, but we appear to have reached the nadir. Tunisia has made a strong recovery suggesting that tourists have short memories when there's value to be had.

The British Post office conducts a yearly audit of additional holiday costs across 40 destinations. These costs are aggregated for eight items such as a cup of coffee, bottle of lager, packet of Marlboro cigarettes and a three-course meal for two adults in a local restaurant with a bottle of house white wine. All 8 items cost £27.95 in Sri Lanka and at the other extreme, £115.69 in Brisbane Australia.

The drift to value continues, so the countries with a favourable rate of exchange like the Czech republic and Eurozone countries that provide value should do better in 2012.

Recent information from the British Airports Authority, suggests that travel from its airports in December benefited from the clement weather. Passengers using Heathrow in last month increased by 14.7% over the snow affected month of December 2010. Heathrow’s problem is that it has a flight capacity of 480,000 per year and it is already near that figure now.

Recessions end when people realise that the banking crisis, Euro sovereign debt and spending cuts haven't really affected them as individuals. Savers, disenchanted with their returns can be persuaded to spend, and for the cash strapped there are signs that borrowing for holidays is again rising in the USA.

New beginnings

Winter is the time we traditionally think about mortality and the end of things.

Kipling thought that amongst many eastern people, the fear of death was the beginning of wisdom. He was wrong. It is the acceptance of mortality that is the beginning of wisdom. In the ancient epic, Mahabharata, wise Yudhistra is asked. “What is the greatest mystery?" His answer: "why man surrounded by so much evidence of death, continues to behave as if he is immortal".

For some death comes as a complete surprise. Rico in Little Caesar, shot and lying in the gutter asks: "Mother of mercy. Is this the end for Rico?"
Sheridan on his deathbed, still in good humour said: "I always knew that all men must die, but thought somehow in my case they’d make an exception "
Many are simply not ready, others accept it reluctantly.

Rutger Hauer played an android in Bladerunner, a God like being with a built in termination device. His life was lived with intensity in the knowledge of its brevity.
His creator, a scientist named Tyrell explained the process so:
"The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long.... and you have burned so very, very brightly, Roy".
At the end of the movie, Roy says:
"I've seen things you wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die."
A movie moment to remember. A replicant in his final moment accepting his own humanity.

Marcus Aurelius thought that it was the quality of the life lived not its length that mattered. Whether 30 years or 300, it would be just a blink in the eye of eternity.

Is there something after death? Do we possess at the genetic level a deeper understanding or is this simply the body's way of coping with termination?
One thing is certain, in life, all experiences have a finite element.

All the pleasurable diversions can only be done a number of times. Take sex for example. Some journalist calculated that the average number of sexual encounters in an lifetime was 4,200 in total. Pat yourself and enjoy feeling smug if you have already passed that number. There will be lots of sad souls who will never make that norm. Perhaps you have only 1000 fucks left inside you.

If you enjoy going to the theatre, work out on the basis of visits made last year, how many shows you will see in your possible future. Surprised by the small and finite number?

The best you can do is to improve the quality of these remaining experiences or endeavour to increase their frequency. Or do both. No more cheap plonk. Or unsatisfactory fumbles in unromantic situations.

The countdown has commenced. It is still too difficult to live life on the basis that this could be your last day, but what if you had ten thousand left?

Would you emulate Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman in the Bucket list?
Could you ever do something boring and unrewarding ever again by choice?

Underneath the ornamental clock in Liberty’s in Kingly street is the legend: ‘No moment gone ever comes back again. Take heed and nothing do in vain’.

Trouble in the UK travel business

Every sector in the UK's travel business has suffered since 2008,

Airlines are now operating on margins of 0.7% and unusual factors in addition to general economic woes have contributed.
These include high oil prices, disasters like the earthquakes in New Zealand and Turkey, political unrest in the Arab world and a general sense of fear.

Travelers have reacted by having holidays closer to home; short city breaks rather than the normal fortnight holiday and the search for value. This is why some low cost carriers like Ryan Air and Easy Jet are bucking the trend. Others like BMI are being consolidated into the International Airline Group (the owners of BA and Iberia) who value its Heathrow slots. Further away, Air Seychelles are abandoning many of its international routes and India's Kingfisher has huge debt problems.

Travel Agents have been closing down at an unprecedented rate and losing business to online and price comparison sites where deals are popular.

These online sites like E bookers have created the expectation of low and attractive deals, which inevitably damage the tour operators business.
Thomas Cook decided to delay release of its full year results with catastrophic effects on its share price.
They said: "We intend to seek agreement from the banks to adjustments that will improve our resilience if trading conditions remain difficult".

And they will.

Relying on the banks may be necessary, but remember the old adage: Bankers lend you an umbrella when it's sunny, but want it back when it's raining.

Beware of bankers offering loans

It may be true that Greece has bought its troubles on itself. They weren't honest about their economic health when they applied to be part of the eurozone.
State and public corruption was tolerated and they borrowed money they never had a chance of repaying.

However some responsibility surely lies with the banks that lent Greece so much money. Even a cursory analysis of Greek finances would have caused most lenders to hesitate, unless they believed that the debts were underwritten and secured by the eurobank or the richer countries within the community.

This crisis is not about sovereign default. It is about the real possibility of major banks in Germany and France going belly up. Commerzbank is apparently owed €130 billion alone.

The German Chancellor and her French partner appear to be buying time for their banks. The help they are providing Greece is barely enough to pay the interest on their loans. The offer of a 50% write down is seen as preferable to a 100% hit on the banks.

The chances of Greece being able to pay back even half of its debts is questionable, so this is a problem deferred not eliminated.

Germany is a rich country, the only major European state with a trading surplus and a sovereign wealth fund. It exports to its neighbours who are encouraged to borrow to buy Germany's products. Countries with sovereign wealth, created by manufacturing exports, are mirrored by countries with deficits.

Martin Wolf the economist noted that one country cannot keep its surplus and fail to finance its customer countries deficits.

Meanwhile financial volatility is everywhere and John Donne's poem ‘For whom the bells toll’, starts: ‘No man is an island...’ and ends ‘Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee’.