Like the curates egg, the news is good in parts

Let’s taste the medicine first. Air X Asia has announced that it is pulling out of Europe at the end of March. They blame the torpid European economy, high oil prices, the European carbon-trading scheme and Britain’s airline passenger duty. All these factors may help justify their withdrawal but some aviation experts expressed doubts about the business viability of the low cost, long haul concept.

The latest Overseas Travel and Tourism report for Quarter 3, 2011 suggests that the travel numbers whilst significantly down since 2008, haven't got any worse since the slump in 2009/10. This despite oil prices, APD, natural disasters and political revolution. Visits abroad by UK residents is 19% lower than in 2008, but we appear to have reached the nadir. Tunisia has made a strong recovery suggesting that tourists have short memories when there's value to be had.

The British Post office conducts a yearly audit of additional holiday costs across 40 destinations. These costs are aggregated for eight items such as a cup of coffee, bottle of lager, packet of Marlboro cigarettes and a three-course meal for two adults in a local restaurant with a bottle of house white wine. All 8 items cost £27.95 in Sri Lanka and at the other extreme, £115.69 in Brisbane Australia.

The drift to value continues, so the countries with a favourable rate of exchange like the Czech republic and Eurozone countries that provide value should do better in 2012.

Recent information from the British Airports Authority, suggests that travel from its airports in December benefited from the clement weather. Passengers using Heathrow in last month increased by 14.7% over the snow affected month of December 2010. Heathrow’s problem is that it has a flight capacity of 480,000 per year and it is already near that figure now.

Recessions end when people realise that the banking crisis, Euro sovereign debt and spending cuts haven't really affected them as individuals. Savers, disenchanted with their returns can be persuaded to spend, and for the cash strapped there are signs that borrowing for holidays is again rising in the USA.

New beginnings

Winter is the time we traditionally think about mortality and the end of things.

Kipling thought that amongst many eastern people, the fear of death was the beginning of wisdom. He was wrong. It is the acceptance of mortality that is the beginning of wisdom. In the ancient epic, Mahabharata, wise Yudhistra is asked. “What is the greatest mystery?" His answer: "why man surrounded by so much evidence of death, continues to behave as if he is immortal".

For some death comes as a complete surprise. Rico in Little Caesar, shot and lying in the gutter asks: "Mother of mercy. Is this the end for Rico?"
Sheridan on his deathbed, still in good humour said: "I always knew that all men must die, but thought somehow in my case they’d make an exception "
Many are simply not ready, others accept it reluctantly.

Rutger Hauer played an android in Bladerunner, a God like being with a built in termination device. His life was lived with intensity in the knowledge of its brevity.
His creator, a scientist named Tyrell explained the process so:
"The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long.... and you have burned so very, very brightly, Roy".
At the end of the movie, Roy says:
"I've seen things you wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die."
A movie moment to remember. A replicant in his final moment accepting his own humanity.

Marcus Aurelius thought that it was the quality of the life lived not its length that mattered. Whether 30 years or 300, it would be just a blink in the eye of eternity.

Is there something after death? Do we possess at the genetic level a deeper understanding or is this simply the body's way of coping with termination?
One thing is certain, in life, all experiences have a finite element.

All the pleasurable diversions can only be done a number of times. Take sex for example. Some journalist calculated that the average number of sexual encounters in an lifetime was 4,200 in total. Pat yourself and enjoy feeling smug if you have already passed that number. There will be lots of sad souls who will never make that norm. Perhaps you have only 1000 fucks left inside you.

If you enjoy going to the theatre, work out on the basis of visits made last year, how many shows you will see in your possible future. Surprised by the small and finite number?

The best you can do is to improve the quality of these remaining experiences or endeavour to increase their frequency. Or do both. No more cheap plonk. Or unsatisfactory fumbles in unromantic situations.

The countdown has commenced. It is still too difficult to live life on the basis that this could be your last day, but what if you had ten thousand left?

Would you emulate Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman in the Bucket list?
Could you ever do something boring and unrewarding ever again by choice?

Underneath the ornamental clock in Liberty’s in Kingly street is the legend: ‘No moment gone ever comes back again. Take heed and nothing do in vain’.

Trouble in the UK travel business

Every sector in the UK's travel business has suffered since 2008,

Airlines are now operating on margins of 0.7% and unusual factors in addition to general economic woes have contributed.
These include high oil prices, disasters like the earthquakes in New Zealand and Turkey, political unrest in the Arab world and a general sense of fear.

Travelers have reacted by having holidays closer to home; short city breaks rather than the normal fortnight holiday and the search for value. This is why some low cost carriers like Ryan Air and Easy Jet are bucking the trend. Others like BMI are being consolidated into the International Airline Group (the owners of BA and Iberia) who value its Heathrow slots. Further away, Air Seychelles are abandoning many of its international routes and India's Kingfisher has huge debt problems.

Travel Agents have been closing down at an unprecedented rate and losing business to online and price comparison sites where deals are popular.

These online sites like E bookers have created the expectation of low and attractive deals, which inevitably damage the tour operators business.
Thomas Cook decided to delay release of its full year results with catastrophic effects on its share price.
They said: "We intend to seek agreement from the banks to adjustments that will improve our resilience if trading conditions remain difficult".

And they will.

Relying on the banks may be necessary, but remember the old adage: Bankers lend you an umbrella when it's sunny, but want it back when it's raining.

Beware of bankers offering loans

It may be true that Greece has bought its troubles on itself. They weren't honest about their economic health when they applied to be part of the eurozone.
State and public corruption was tolerated and they borrowed money they never had a chance of repaying.

However some responsibility surely lies with the banks that lent Greece so much money. Even a cursory analysis of Greek finances would have caused most lenders to hesitate, unless they believed that the debts were underwritten and secured by the eurobank or the richer countries within the community.

This crisis is not about sovereign default. It is about the real possibility of major banks in Germany and France going belly up. Commerzbank is apparently owed €130 billion alone.

The German Chancellor and her French partner appear to be buying time for their banks. The help they are providing Greece is barely enough to pay the interest on their loans. The offer of a 50% write down is seen as preferable to a 100% hit on the banks.

The chances of Greece being able to pay back even half of its debts is questionable, so this is a problem deferred not eliminated.

Germany is a rich country, the only major European state with a trading surplus and a sovereign wealth fund. It exports to its neighbours who are encouraged to borrow to buy Germany's products. Countries with sovereign wealth, created by manufacturing exports, are mirrored by countries with deficits.

Martin Wolf the economist noted that one country cannot keep its surplus and fail to finance its customer countries deficits.

Meanwhile financial volatility is everywhere and John Donne's poem ‘For whom the bells toll’, starts: ‘No man is an island...’ and ends ‘Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee’.

Sky high taxation

APD is a lucrative tax, generating about £ 2.5 billion in 2011 for the UK's tax coffers. Originally conceived as an environmentally fair green tax, this pretence has been dropped in these hard times.

As a revenue generating tax it is very successful, but as constituted very unfair. Now pressure is building up for reform ahead of the 10% anticipated increase.
At present the tax is paid on departure from UK airports, so domestic passengers flying internally from the UK pay twice as much as a passenger flying from London to Turkey.

The tax paid was intended to be based on distance traveled as follows:



The distance from London is based on where the country's destination sites it's capital, so because Washington is nearer than Jamaica, Los Angeles passengers pay less than those traveling to Kingston, Jamaica.

The Caribbean countries are heavily dependent on tourism and this tax hits them hard.

Sadly everyone in the UK travel and tourism industry has been adversely affected too. Other overseas countries can retaliate or reduce their own version of APD taxes.
The Republic of Ireland abandoned its taxes, which made it cheaper for people from UK's Northern Ireland to travel from Dublin to the USA. Continental Airlines threatened to cancel its Belfast flights and The UK chancellor helpfully reduced the APD for this particular situation.

Now posters in Heathrow have appeared, accompanied by advertisements in the National newspapers highlighting the importance of the tourism industry to the UK and its friends abroad.

Will George Osborne listen?

I suspect that he will address the domestic travel issue, help the Caribbean countries and once again postpone the planned increase. If this happens, it will be a case of "Being thankful for small mercies".

Where do we go from here?

A response to that question is: “I wouldn't start from here”.

Here is an uncertain place with no road maps or place signs to direct us. History is no guide and past practice useless.

Economics is not a science and even the elders and wise men cannot see how Governments can pay back their debts whilst simultaneously boosting demand.

So we have set the scene for stagnancy. People will spend less and try to pay off their credit card debts.

For the Government, paying back debt means reducing costs by spending less and making public sector workers redundant. While raising tax revenues!

Vat at 20% and a 50% income tax ceiling does not guarantee increased revenue as the Laffer curve shows. Increased petrol prices should have benefited the Government coffers but didn't because ordinary people used their cars less.

Similarly high Air Passenger Duty simply accelerates the drift away from long haul destinations.

John Maynard Keynes explained the problem by stating that:
Markets are never perfect because information is rarely complete or accurate, because people did not always behave rationally and because there were often obstacles. In his words “there is always irreducible uncertainty"

Tourism is a business which has been diminished by the recession. In 2008, UK residents made 69 million trips abroad. The estimates for 2011 will probably not exceed 57 million, a reduction of 17.4%. The shrinking pound doesn't help.

Countries like the USA have increased flights and targeted businessmen, while India seeks to attract UK citizens with Indian ancestry.

For countries that cannot do that, the solution must be: To make the offering more affordable. Improving access by providing more flights and promoting the destination as highly desirable, unique with reasons why a visit should not be deferred.

Canada is doing all that and despite it's distance, high APD, and an exchange rate disadvantage, deserves to succeed.

Statistics and linear thinking.

In a recent issue of New Scientist, I found this great quote, attributed to Aaron Levenstein.

"Statistics are rather like bikinis: what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."

Consider the latest press release from IATA, which reports that the aviation industry expects an increase of 800 million more passengers by 2014 compared to 2009. This is a staggering improvement from 2.5 billion to 3.3 billion.

Peek a bit closer and you may see more.

Isn't 2009 a bad choice as a base year, because air travel fell by 15%?
So a predicted growth of 32% over five years reduces to 12%.

And of the total 3.3 billion, 2.0 billion will be domestic travel. So lets ignore predicted domestic growth in China and India and concentrate on International travelers by air.

IATA forecast a growth in international passenger traffic to China of 10.8% presumably on an annualised basis, to the UAE of 10.2%, Vietnam by 10.2 % and so on.

Nels Bohr, the Danish physicist said it best: "Prediction is difficult, particularly when it applies to the future ".

Was the IATA consensus arrived at before the extent of the jasmine revolution was understood and before concerns about inflation were expressed in China and India?

One of the reasons given to explain the recession was the imbalance between the very rich and the very poor. In 1929 and 2009, in western nations, the range was 128 to 1, leading to conspicuous consumption and speculative high yield gambles.
The stage is now set for revolution and they will be bloody.

Tourism to Egypt and other Arab countries are already badly affected and Dubai will suffer too.

John Maynard Keynes warned of the dangers of linear trend forecasts. Markets are never perfect because information is rarely complete, because people are not always rational and there are sometimes obstacles to action.

There is always "Irreducible uncertainty".