Advertising Matters

Like the curates egg, the news is good in parts

2012-01-13T17:09:00.007Z

Let’s taste the medicine first. Air X Asia has announced that it is pulling out of Europe at the end of March. They blame the torpid European economy, high oil prices, the European carbon-trading scheme and Britain’s airline passenger duty. All these factors may help justify their withdrawal but some aviation experts expressed doubts about the business viability of the low cost, long haul concept.

The latest Overseas Travel and Tourism report for Quarter 3, 2011 suggests that the travel numbers whilst significantly down since 2008, haven't got any worse since the slump in 2009/10. This despite oil prices, APD, natural disasters and political revolution. Visits abroad by UK residents is 19% lower than in 2008, but we appear to have reached the nadir. Tunisia has made a strong recovery suggesting that tourists have short memories when there's value to be had.

The British Post office conducts a yearly audit of additional holiday costs across 40 destinations. These costs are aggregated for eight items such as a cup of coffee, bottle of lager, packet of Marlboro cigarettes and a three-course meal for two adults in a local restaurant with a bottle of house white wine. All 8 items cost £27.95 in Sri Lanka and at the other extreme, £115.69 in Brisbane Australia.

The drift to value continues, so the countries with a favourable rate of exchange like the Czech republic and Eurozone countries that provide value should do better in 2012.

Recent information from the British Airports Authority, suggests that travel from its airports in December benefited from the clement weather. Passengers using Heathrow in last month increased by 14.7% over the snow affected month of December 2010. Heathrow’s problem is that it has a flight capacity of 480,000 per year and it is already near that figure now.

Recessions end when people realise that the banking crisis, Euro sovereign debt and spending cuts haven't really affected them as individuals. Savers, disenchanted with their returns can be persuaded to spend, and for the cash strapped there are signs that borrowing for holidays is again rising in the USA.

New beginnings

2012-01-06T14:38:00.005Z

Winter is the time we traditionally think about mortality and the end of things.

Kipling thought that amongst many eastern people, the fear of death was the beginning of wisdom. He was wrong. It is the acceptance of mortality that is the beginning of wisdom. In the ancient epic, Mahabharata, wise Yudhistra is asked. “What is the greatest mystery?" His answer: "why man surrounded by so much evidence of death, continues to behave as if he is immortal".

For some death comes as a complete surprise. Rico in Little Caesar, shot and lying in the gutter asks: "Mother of mercy. Is this the end for Rico?"
Sheridan on his deathbed, still in good humour said: "I always knew that all men must die, but thought somehow in my case they’d make an exception "
Many are simply not ready, others accept it reluctantly.

Rutger Hauer played an android in Bladerunner, a God like being with a built in termination device. His life was lived with intensity in the knowledge of its brevity.
His creator, a scientist named Tyrell explained the process so:
"The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long.... and you have burned so very, very brightly, Roy".
At the end of the movie, Roy says:
"I've seen things you wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die."
A movie moment to remember. A replicant in his final moment accepting his own humanity.

Marcus Aurelius thought that it was the quality of the life lived not its length that mattered. Whether 30 years or 300, it would be just a blink in the eye of eternity.

Is there something after death? Do we possess at the genetic level a deeper understanding or is this simply the body's way of coping with termination?
One thing is certain, in life, all experiences have a finite element.

All the pleasurable diversions can only be done a number of times. Take sex for example. Some journalist calculated that the average number of sexual encounters in an lifetime was 4,200 in total. Pat yourself and enjoy feeling smug if you have already passed that number. There will be lots of sad souls who will never make that norm. Perhaps you have only 1000 fucks left inside you.

If you enjoy going to the theatre, work out on the basis of visits made last year, how many shows you will see in your possible future. Surprised by the small and finite number?

The best you can do is to improve the quality of these remaining experiences or endeavour to increase their frequency. Or do both. No more cheap plonk. Or unsatisfactory fumbles in unromantic situations.

The countdown has commenced. It is still too difficult to live life on the basis that this could be your last day, but what if you had ten thousand left?

Would you emulate Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman in the Bucket list?
Could you ever do something boring and unrewarding ever again by choice?

Underneath the ornamental clock in Liberty’s in Kingly street is the legend: ‘No moment gone ever comes back again. Take heed and nothing do in vain’.

Trouble in the UK travel business

2011-12-02T15:24:00.003Z

Every sector in the UK's travel business has suffered since 2008,

Airlines are now operating on margins of 0.7% and unusual factors in addition to general economic woes have contributed.
These include high oil prices, disasters like the earthquakes in New Zealand and Turkey, political unrest in the Arab world and a general sense of fear.

Travelers have reacted by having holidays closer to home; short city breaks rather than the normal fortnight holiday and the search for value. This is why some low cost carriers like Ryan Air and Easy Jet are bucking the trend. Others like BMI are being consolidated into the International Airline Group (the owners of BA and Iberia) who value its Heathrow slots. Further away, Air Seychelles are abandoning many of its international routes and India's Kingfisher has huge debt problems.

Travel Agents have been closing down at an unprecedented rate and losing business to online and price comparison sites where deals are popular.

These online sites like E bookers have created the expectation of low and attractive deals, which inevitably damage the tour operators business.
Thomas Cook decided to delay release of its full year results with catastrophic effects on its share price.
They said: "We intend to seek agreement from the banks to adjustments that will improve our resilience if trading conditions remain difficult".

And they will.

Relying on the banks may be necessary, but remember the old adage: Bankers lend you an umbrella when it's sunny, but want it back when it's raining.

Beware of bankers offering loans

2011-11-09T16:01:00.004Z

It may be true that Greece has bought its troubles on itself. They weren't honest about their economic health when they applied to be part of the eurozone.
State and public corruption was tolerated and they borrowed money they never had a chance of repaying.

However some responsibility surely lies with the banks that lent Greece so much money. Even a cursory analysis of Greek finances would have caused most lenders to hesitate, unless they believed that the debts were underwritten and secured by the eurobank or the richer countries within the community.

This crisis is not about sovereign default. It is about the real possibility of major banks in Germany and France going belly up. Commerzbank is apparently owed €130 billion alone.

The German Chancellor and her French partner appear to be buying time for their banks. The help they are providing Greece is barely enough to pay the interest on their loans. The offer of a 50% write down is seen as preferable to a 100% hit on the banks.

The chances of Greece being able to pay back even half of its debts is questionable, so this is a problem deferred not eliminated.

Germany is a rich country, the only major European state with a trading surplus and a sovereign wealth fund. It exports to its neighbours who are encouraged to borrow to buy Germany's products. Countries with sovereign wealth, created by manufacturing exports, are mirrored by countries with deficits.

Martin Wolf the economist noted that one country cannot keep its surplus and fail to finance its customer countries deficits.

Meanwhile financial volatility is everywhere and John Donne's poem ‘For whom the bells toll’, starts: ‘No man is an island...’ and ends ‘Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee’.

Sky high taxation

2011-11-02T16:55:00.003Z

APD is a lucrative tax, generating about £ 2.5 billion in 2011 for the UK's tax coffers. Originally conceived as an environmentally fair green tax, this pretence has been dropped in these hard times.

As a revenue generating tax it is very successful, but as constituted very unfair. Now pressure is building up for reform ahead of the 10% anticipated increase.
At present the tax is paid on departure from UK airports, so domestic passengers flying internally from the UK pay twice as much as a passenger flying from London to Turkey.

The tax paid was intended to be based on distance traveled as follows:

The distance from London is based on where the country's destination sites it's capital, so because Washington is nearer than Jamaica, Los Angeles passengers pay less than those traveling to Kingston, Jamaica.

The Caribbean countries are heavily dependent on tourism and this tax hits them hard.

Sadly everyone in the UK travel and tourism industry has been adversely affected too. Other overseas countries can retaliate or reduce their own version of APD taxes.
The Republic of Ireland abandoned its taxes, which made it cheaper for people from UK's Northern Ireland to travel from Dublin to the USA. Continental Airlines threatened to cancel its Belfast flights and The UK chancellor helpfully reduced the APD for this particular situation.

Now posters in Heathrow have appeared, accompanied by advertisements in the National newspapers highlighting the importance of the tourism industry to the UK and its friends abroad.

Will George Osborne listen?

I suspect that he will address the domestic travel issue, help the Caribbean countries and once again postpone the planned increase. If this happens, it will be a case of "Being thankful for small mercies".

Where do we go from here?

2011-10-20T10:10:00.006Z

A response to that question is: “I wouldn't start from here”.

Here is an uncertain place with no road maps or place signs to direct us. History is no guide and past practice useless.

Economics is not a science and even the elders and wise men cannot see how Governments can pay back their debts whilst simultaneously boosting demand.

So we have set the scene for stagnancy. People will spend less and try to pay off their credit card debts.

For the Government, paying back debt means reducing costs by spending less and making public sector workers redundant. While raising tax revenues!

Vat at 20% and a 50% income tax ceiling does not guarantee increased revenue as the Laffer curve shows. Increased petrol prices should have benefited the Government coffers but didn't because ordinary people used their cars less.

Similarly high Air Passenger Duty simply accelerates the drift away from long haul destinations.

John Maynard Keynes explained the problem by stating that:
Markets are never perfect because information is rarely complete or accurate, because people did not always behave rationally and because there were often obstacles. In his words “there is always irreducible uncertainty"

Tourism is a business which has been diminished by the recession. In 2008, UK residents made 69 million trips abroad. The estimates for 2011 will probably not exceed 57 million, a reduction of 17.4%. The shrinking pound doesn't help.

Countries like the USA have increased flights and targeted businessmen, while India seeks to attract UK citizens with Indian ancestry.

For countries that cannot do that, the solution must be: To make the offering more affordable. Improving access by providing more flights and promoting the destination as highly desirable, unique with reasons why a visit should not be deferred.

Canada is doing all that and despite it's distance, high APD, and an exchange rate disadvantage, deserves to succeed.

Statistics and linear thinking.

2011-09-30T15:11:00.004Z

In a recent issue of New Scientist, I found this great quote, attributed to Aaron Levenstein.

"Statistics are rather like bikinis: what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."

Consider the latest press release from IATA, which reports that the aviation industry expects an increase of 800 million more passengers by 2014 compared to 2009. This is a staggering improvement from 2.5 billion to 3.3 billion.

Peek a bit closer and you may see more.

Isn't 2009 a bad choice as a base year, because air travel fell by 15%?
So a predicted growth of 32% over five years reduces to 12%.

And of the total 3.3 billion, 2.0 billion will be domestic travel. So lets ignore predicted domestic growth in China and India and concentrate on International travelers by air.

IATA forecast a growth in international passenger traffic to China of 10.8% presumably on an annualised basis, to the UAE of 10.2%, Vietnam by 10.2 % and so on.

Nels Bohr, the Danish physicist said it best: "Prediction is difficult, particularly when it applies to the future ".

Was the IATA consensus arrived at before the extent of the jasmine revolution was understood and before concerns about inflation were expressed in China and India?

One of the reasons given to explain the recession was the imbalance between the very rich and the very poor. In 1929 and 2009, in western nations, the range was 128 to 1, leading to conspicuous consumption and speculative high yield gambles.
The stage is now set for revolution and they will be bloody.

Tourism to Egypt and other Arab countries are already badly affected and Dubai will suffer too.

John Maynard Keynes warned of the dangers of linear trend forecasts. Markets are never perfect because information is rarely complete, because people are not always rational and there are sometimes obstacles to action.

There is always "Irreducible uncertainty".

The cost of failure

2011-09-26T13:21:00.006Z

David Tebutt's murder and the kidnap of his wife provoked outrage from the establishment and fear from potential western tourists.

Wealth does not guarantee safety. Indeed it provokes envy and motivation for the Somali pirates for whom this is a lucrative business.

Their hunting ground covers wide stretches of the Indian Ocean, as far south as the Seychelles and now even the pleasure beaches of Kenya are now within reach of the speedboats they use.

Kenya's tourism Minister said: "We strongly condemn this senseless act of violence on innocent visitors to our country."

It obviously made a lot of sense to the pirates.

The managing director of the tourist board, after promising justice and apprehension of the criminals went on to say:
"We further wish to reassure the travel trade that the safety of our tourists is paramount and the Government has proper machinery in place to ensure high level security of our tourists".
So what went wrong this time and what positive new steps have been taken to prevent a re-occurrence?

This and other recent calamities, natural and unnatural, accidental or deliberate make the case for every tourist office to have a Crisis management programme in place. One that is carefully thought through, researched and rehearsed.
Crisis management is not about being in a crisis. It involves:

* A continuous process of risk assessment and being proactive about dangers we face.

* Professional management involving timely and effective communication through the key media channels by the right people.

This means having a semi-permanent team in place, determining who will be in charge, who will be the spokes-person and who will monitor media reporting and response. The plan will identify both the internal team and those in each tourist providing country as well as the key media contacts.

Regular updates of risk and how you will respond needs to be planned and rehearsed, so if tragedy occurs, the tourist office responds with sympathy and positive action.

As the old adage says: ‘Fail to prepare, prepare to fail’.

The Lion and the Hyenas

2011-07-15T16:10:00.006Z

As a child I remembered being moved by a story of an old and sick lion being attacked by a pack of hyenas.
The lion was noble and the hyenas cowardly in the simplistic and empathetic way a child sees things.
This analogy comes to mind in the spectacle of Rupert Murdoch at bay.

Mr. Murdoch is however not a noble lion and as a man subject to the adverse effects of power. Unlike Caesar, he did not have a man riding in his chariot repeating the mantra: "Remember, you are only a man."
His victories were noteworthy. He easily bested Robert Maxwell, outmaneuvered the print unions and was given an own goal by the people who launched the British Satellite Broadcasting company. You know, the people who gave us the squarial.

Rupert Murdoch's early opponents under estimated him. They described him as an Aussie upstart. That was a huge mistake. David Frost, fresh from his successes with shows on London Weekend Television, demolished Dr. Emil Savundra, an arrogant bombast who had owned and bankrupted a motor insurance business. His next victim was to be the young Murdoch on what I remember may have been on live TV. Frost failed to dent Murdoch’s composure and resorted to badgering his subject. Murdoch's revenge was to acquire a significant stake in London Weekend Television from which platform Frost was excluded until suitable reparation was made.

Mr Murdoch is a good listener. His people organised meetings over one week during breakfast, lunch and dinner with people with ideas and opinions from the Advertising Agencies. He asked relevant questions and we were happy to tell him our thoughts. Mr Maxwell had the same notion, but talked all the way through the meetings.

Murdoch has had some luck, and survived mistakes such as My Space. Overall he has been the most successful media baron ever.

Only a fool will write him off and he is still capable of striking out.

Power, politics and the gutter press

2011-07-08T11:47:00.006Z

The decision to close the UK's largest circulation Sunday newspaper is strange for a culture that believes yesterday's news is today's fish and chips wrapping paper.

Experts has opined that this was done to improve the chances that Jeremy Hunt, the Culture Secretary would continue to support Mr. Murdoch's bid to buy the 61% he doesn't already own of Sky, the major player in satellite broadcasting.

Closure of the News of the World will not guarantee that. Public and advertiser's opinion will force the Conservative led government to be scrupulous in it's dealings with the empire of News International. This is particularly so, after their blunder in appointing Andy Coulson as press relations adviser. Andy had been in charge of editorship on the News of the World when so many of these alleged offences happened.

More other serious charges are that certain policemen of the Metropolitan force were paid, and some politicians were warned off with the implicit threat of exposure of their private peccadillos. It may be a co-incidence that one such person was subsequently outed as gay by the sister daily The Sun.

Criticism of Murdoch's mass market newspapers by the other red tops has been muted. It is highly probable that they were up to the same tricks as well.

This is one story that will not go away. The liberal quality newspaper the Guardian who led the chase to exposure will see to that. There will be more leaks that will make the top management squirm.

So if the closure does not enhance the possibility of success with the Sky purchase, why do it?

A cynical view is that this is simply a re-badging exercise. The News of the World is dead. Welcome the Sun on Sunday.

Heroes of Advertising

2011-06-08T14:36:00.003Z

It seems the time to remember the brave mad men of media.

Bert Devos, once Chairman of Masius Wynne-Williams described his managing director as: "the master of the upward lick and the downward kick.”

In print too.

He, I think also coined the phrase when describing a fellow bon viveur as "A legend in his own lunchtime."

My personal favourite is Mac Hyne. Mac is an expert in the regional press. In one new business presentation to a motor dealership, he went armed with a stack of local newspapers.

He started his pitch by opening the first newspaper, starting from the front page. He pointed to competitors early positions, before finding the prospects ad in the back of the newspaper.

He repeated this process for several newspapers before leaning over to the head honcho and saying in a confidential manner:
"Makes you feel like a c**t , doesn't it?”. He couldn't understand why he was thrown out.

In his hermetically sealed room at work, the air was always full of cigarette smoke.

When asked why he had to smoke so much, he denied that he was a heavy smoker.

"Look at your ash tray", his partner said. "you must have smoked twenty fags already.”

Mac answered: "No, I've emptied the ash tray twice already."

Legally Blonde

2011-03-25T13:03:00.007Z

The smash hit show playing on the London stage has just won the ‘Olivier’ award for best musical.

Based on a Reese Witherspoon film, it charts the progress of a cheerleader who hides her intelligence in order to keep her boyfriend. Ironically, he dumps her anyway for another judged to be a more acceptable consort for a future lawyer.
She gets even by winning admission to Harvard Law College, scores again by getting better grades than her erstwhile lover and finally triumphs in the courtroom.

Clichés are usually unhelpful, but the myth of the dumb blonde particularly so.
Some blondes in the cinema were tough and smart broads. Think of Mae West and the wise cracking Lauren Bacall.
My particular favourite was Marilyn Monroe who hid her ambition whilst retaining a winsome charm.
She played dumb blondes well, as in Some Like it Hot. My preferred Marilyn Monroe showcase is Gentlemen Prefer Blondes.

She plays a nightclub entertainer Lorelei Lee, out to bag a rich man and any other trinket along the way.
Her version of ‘Diamonds are a Girl's Best Friend’ has never been bettered.
Near the end of the movie, she with her geeky but rich boyfriend is confronted by the boy's father. He wants to stop his son marrying a gold-digger. Anita Loos who was the author gave Marilyn a great scene.

"You only want to marry my son for his money" says the irate father.
"No" Marilyn replies, "I only want to marry him for your money."
While he splutters, she continues:
"You are silly. Don't you see that a girl who is pretty is like a man being rich?
You won’t marry a girl just because she's pretty, but doesn't it help?
And if you had a daughter, wouldn't you rather she married a man who was rich and able to give her the things that made her happy?"

Score one for the dumb blonde.

Red Stripe; a missed opportunity

2011-02-18T11:52:00.005Z

I hear Red Stripe is looking for an ad agency.

We pitched for the account many years ago, when most new beers were first tested in London.

The client, an ex West Indian test cricketer did not want any reference to the brands Caribbean origins.
This proved to be a difficult creative hurdle and after several attempts it was decided to ignore that aspect of the brief.

The modest advertising budget and the need to launch only in London restricted media choice to Posters and Radio.
The radio script went something like this:

Background sounds of an orchestra tuning up for a recital of the William Tell overture

John Cleese sound alike: "Fancy a can of Red Stripe, Julian?"

"What is it Charles, a new kind of lager?"

"Yes Julian, it's rather special" then..."Pass a few to Wood wind and Brass".

"Cheers". "Cheers" to the sound of pulled beer can tags.

The background music now changes from the classic form to something with a reggae beat.

"I say Charles" says Julian, "This red stripe tastes kind of...funky."

The ad ends with the orchestra playing the reggae version enthusiastically.

If the client was nervous at this stage, he nearly collapsed when he saw the poster. I had it cleared with the authorities too.

I remain convinced that had he the confidence to approve this radical approach, the brand would have been successful.

And we would have been famous.

Chinese pilgrimage to Cambridge

2011-02-08T16:02:00.005Z

The Chinese, now richer and freer than before have become great tourists.

France is a favourite destination. The rich Chinese have developed a taste for wine, adore the south of France,largely because of Peter Mayle's "Life in Provence" and because a television series "Dream links " was shot in the Midi.

Britain is not as popular.According to our Prime Minister, we lanquish in 22nd place and this is not likely to change given that our bureaucrats make it so difficult to get a tourist visa. An eighty year old man from India was refused a visa because he might choose to marry a UK citizen and stay here. The fact that he was already married with a family was not considered relevant.

One place sought out by Chinese tourists is Cambridge. It's history, ancient buildings and tranquil river Cam are seen as attractive of course. However it's real draw was that Xu Zhimso studied there ninety years ago and penned a poem so;

"Quietly now I leave the Cam,

As quietly as I came.

Gently wave farewell the clouded

Western sky aflame....

There the golden willow stands

a bride of sunset's glow.

How its dancing ripples glint

and stir my heart below"

The willow still stands in the grounds of Kings college and is the base for pilgrims. Next to it is a marble boulder on which this poem is inscribed

Xu died young but his poems created great prestige for Cambridge. Perhaps his shade still rests under this ancient willow and watches todays young as they punt on the Cam.

Fair wind for travel?

2010-11-11T13:15:00.004Z

I went to the world travel market at Excel and was surprised at the optimism in the Travel and tourism sector.
British Airways has moved into the black despite the volcanic ash cloud and dispute with their cabin crews.
easyJet and the chortling Ryanair have seen their already profitable businesses grow further and luxury hotels are recovering well.

The British Airports Authority said that 9.75 million passengers used their airports in October, an increase of 3.4% over the passenger numbers of the previous October. Heathrow did rather better with an increase of 7.2 %, helped by increases in business travel. 77.2 % of seats were occupied in planes leaving Heathrow. Some airlines travelling to favoured destinations did much better.

The North Atlantic traffic grew by 7.5%.

Speculation about the effects of the large increases in the air passengers duty now centre around falls in economy passenger numbers to long haul destinations and the possible switch to other European hubs in an attempt to reduce costs.

At home, M& S, Sainsbury's, John Lewis and Tesco are all cock-a-hoop about their most recent set of figures and buoyant about future prospects.

The gathering political rebellion about austerity cuts, particularly on defence and University fees will blunt the effects on the economy. Few economists are repeating fears of a double dip recession.

So the optimism encountered may have substance. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

Summer swallow or Autumn squalls?

2010-10-22T12:44:00.012Z

British airline passengers have apparently regained their zest for travel.

According to the British Airports Authority, passengers who travelled through the six airports they control show an increase in September of 3.3% over the same month in 2009.

Heathrow did much better, posting a passenger increase of 7.6%.

Heathrow's passengers to Brazil grew by 27.1%, to Russia by 23.7% and China by 10.3%.
Travellers to North America from Heathrow grew by 6.5 % compared to an overall BAA traffic count of 5.1%.

Clearly all travel, both on scheduled and charter flights, have shown growth in September and BAA put this down to: consolidation after the end of the recession, re-instatement of flights and increases in business travel.

‘One swallow does not a summer make’ is a quotation to bear in mind, even in the autumn. Attempts to cut the UK's financial deficit and ongoing problems with the banks are still raising fears of a double dip recession.

And then there is the certain impact of the increase in the airline passenger duty that will come into effect next month.

For travellers to the Caribbean, Southern Africa and the Far East, economy passengers will pay £75 instead of £50 and the original £20 charged in 2006.
Premium travellers will now pay £150, a huge rise from the £40 first imposed in 2006.

British tourists to the Caribbean have fallen by as much as 25% and this is very bad news. Alan de Chastenet, St.Lucia's minister for Tourism is reported to have said that tourism contributed 64% of the Island's GDP, 70% of tax revenues and 85% of its foreign exchange income.

Don't expect any improvement when the tax is possibly changed to airline flights instead of per passenger. APD will generate £3.8 billion of annual revenues in aviation taxes by 2015.

The Chancellor will not accept less.

Jeremy Bullmore

2010-10-11T13:30:00.004Z

Jeremy Bullmore is a man worth listening to. His observations are based on a willingness to listen and the ability to learn.
His career in advertising needs no elaboration suffice to say it was successful and merited.

One of the things he does well, is to write a column in Campaign, an advertising trade journal in the UK.
Last week he was asked for advice from a newbie in the business "What are your three most important bits of advice for someone like me?"

His answer :

“Advertising is, or should be, all about ideas, wheezes, hypotheses and improvisations : why don't we...? what about...? let's try...... Good advertising makes difficult things happen - and almost everything that's going to be suggested, at least in it's initial expression, will be patently flawed.
As an eager young recruit, you'll be sorely tempted to display your intelligence by pointing this out : by focusing the blinding light of your analysis on the obvious inadequacies of each fragile weakling : and almost certainly in the presence of the weakling's author and the author's superior. What's more, it will be clear from your expression that you expect praise for this act of wanton demolition.
So my first piece of advice; never, ever do this. It's the easiest thing in the world and the least constructive. If you want to be valued, you need to display a consistent ability to see potential in the feeblest spark and help to coax and cosset it until it blazes into glory. If you can't do that, just shut up and listen.
I don't know what the other two are.”

A tale of two countries

2010-09-21T15:28:00.006Z

People choose holiday destinations for some simple reasons.

They have good beaches. They are uncrowded. The hotels are welcoming and provide good service. Access is easy and the package is attractively priced.

It helps if the destination offers unique attractions, is desirable and provides reasons why this holiday should not be deferred.

Most holiday experiences are pleasurable, so what factors beyond a stress free holiday makes tourists return?

I believe the overwhelming reason given by regular visitors is the friendliness of the locals and the warmth of their welcome.
Mauritius is a beautiful island in the Indian Ocean with some of the happiest people in the world. Their people don't just welcome tourists; they don’t show any resentment or indifference to visitors from richer countries. It’s not just that the tourists are safe and treated courteously. Mauritians are genuinely welcoming.

The smile says it all. Even the hotel staff knows your name.

In the USA, the welcome varies .The people at customs and immigration are almost always rude, and though people in places like San Francisco and Boston are polite, the general impression left is negative.

Canada is another story. Their citizens are such a friendly bunch that a return visit is almost mandatory. Toronto is an interesting city, Niagara is inspiring and the CN tower impressive. I will remember with fondness a gentleman we met on the "Rocket "their equivalent of the London tube. He sat with us, marked our card about places to visit, including the wild and beautiful High Park, and even offered to take us around in his people carrier.

I think it was Pierre Trudeau who said: “Other countries have history. We have geography”. True it is a vast and beautiful place, but even more important, their people are amongst the friendliest and helpful. It’s like they believe in the old adage;

There are no strangers, just friends you haven't met.

The age of Skiers

2010-07-26T15:13:00.004Z

Two facts may interest you.

There are now more elderly people in the UK than there are children. The elderly are fitter, more adventurous and less concerned about leaving money for their children to inherit. Referred to as SKIERS, (Spending the kid's inheritance) they spend £100 billion a year according to The Independent, making them a force recognised both by politicians and marketers.

Another development is the growing amount of money returned by the tax office to charities through the gift aid scheme. In 2003/4 the sum was £577 million. Last year, in 2009/10, it had grown to just over a billion pounds, an increase of 73.5%.

Some charities are heavily dependent on Government funding and fear George Osborne’s austerity cuts. Other evidence suggests a fall in the number of private donors. All this means is that charities will have to work harder to attract donors, persuade them to give more often and in a more tax efficient manner.

Who gives to charitable causes?

The Target Group Index shows a marked skew towards the better off, in the social grades ABC1, and older. Many established charities have an average donor age of 70. People give to different causes, depending on the relevance of the appeal and its urgency, so it is possible to establish which cause will attract different types of donor. We analysed the TGI's lifestyle questions and identified seven clusters.

Dyed in the wool traditionalists will support heart, cancer and the poppy day appeals.

Cultured nest builders will contribute to schools and the arts.

Mid life moralists may be more inclined towards third world charities.

What they all have in common is the belief that they can make a difference and that they are morally bound to do so. Maslow in his insightful theory of The Hierarchy of Needs, described them as people whose basic needs are met, who are recognised in their community and have status. They are now in the stage of self-actualisation, when they ask themselves: Why am I here?

Wouldn't it be lovely if we all were in that state?

A look on the bright side

2010-07-14T14:37:00.004Z

The news is almost without exception bad.

Austerity measures taken by most of the world’s governments have raised fears that we may all fall back into recession. In Britain, this risk is real and though the coalition politicians are talking up the economy, they must know that 40% cuts in departmental budgets will mean increased public sector unemployment, a slack unlikely to be taken up by the private firms.

There will be increased pressure on banks to stay liquid, so lending -both to individuals and companies - will stay constrained. Falling consumer confidence may increase saving levels, but lower saving rates will reduce the income of savers.

But hang on!

Life hasn't been so bad if you are still in work, and most of us are. Unemployment rates are much lower than in the recession of the mid 70's. Mortgage holders have benefited from low interest rates. Credit card debts have fallen and fewer homeowners are borrowing from equity release schemes to fund or maintain an unsustainable lifestyle.

The British are beginning to understand the truth in Micawber’s dictum: Live within your means or the devil will get you. Actually he talked in terms of shillings and pence. The truth applies to businesses too, including UK Ltd.

The Economy needs to grow and Germany provides the template. A diverse industrial base, with their thriving automobile industry and now the leader in solar power technology. Our reliance on financial services makes us vulnerable to threats of exodus by these financial wheeler- dealers. Excessive reliance on this business has hurt even Jersey. Despite healthy surpluses in the past, they are considering a tax ceiling of 50%.

Currently the one industry that is doing well is tourism in Britain. In 2009, there were more domestic tourists than in the previous year, and this may surprise you, tourism contributes more to the economy than financial services.

The news from abroad is also good as far as travel is concerned. According to The International Air Transport Association, scheduled airlines showed an 11.7% increase in passenger traffic in May 2010, despite the European troubles relating to the ash cloud and British Airways’ battles with its cabin crews. This dispute affected passenger traffic from Heathrow, as well as those from Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen. Overall BAA airports showed a fall in passengers carried in June 2010 of 1.7% over the same month in 2009.

However, if BAA estimates are accepted, without the strikes, Heathrow would have carried 140,000 more passengers in June 2010, an increase of 2.5% over those of June 2009.

Recessions end when people get tired of feeling poor. Reliance on politicians to put things right is wrong. It's time to learn from Polonius's advice to his son: Borrowing takes the edge off husbandry.

So let’s work harder and reward yourself with a well earned holiday!

The beginning of the end for the European single currency?

2010-06-21T15:11:00.007Z

Douglas McWilliams is bright, particularly so, even by the standards for Economists. He is the Chief Executive of the Centre of Economics and Business Research in London. I have known him for twenty years and rate his opinions highly.

His views on the current crisis in Greece is realistic and bleak.

The European authorities did well to cobble together a rescue package for the weaker European economies.

However, no matter how much sticking plaster is applied, the fundamentals remain the same. A member state can sort out its problems, if it has a competitive problem but no debt, or a debt problem but no competitive weakness.

Ireland for instance, has a deficit problem compensated by rising exports. Greece has a huge deficit which cannot be alleviated by external demand for its exports.

In the days before the single currency, Greece would de-value its currency. So it must leave the Euro, but if it does so, it would default on its debts.

Greece certainly cannot pay its debts in Euros with a devalued Drachma, so part of the package of aid for leaving the Euro must be at a minimum to convert the debt into the new currency unilaterally. This would mean accepting a fall of at least 15% and even then having possibly to write off a high proportion of the remaining debt.

Would Spain and Portugal be also forced to leave the single currency?

At the recent ABTA travel conference he said:

"Spain's failure to address its banking crisis brought on by over exposure to a weak housing market will precipitate an exit from the single currency and other countries like Italy may use this as an excuse to leave too.

Traditional destinations will attract more British tourists to go back when the good old days of Lira and Drachmas return"

Sustained drives to attract tourists with special incentives will hasten economic recovery, even in Greece.

Tourism Travails

2010-05-13T15:33:00.007Z

Click to enlarge.

The travel and tourism industry had in 2009, the worst year in decades.

The recession was mainly to blame, but there were other factors such as the Swine Flu panic
and the growing strength of the Euro. The airlines gambled on the price of oil and caught a bad cold resulting in fewer flights and higher air fares. Low cost airlines like Ryan Air benefited in Europe.

British travellers abroad declined by 15.2% with North America suffering most.
The traffic to Mexico dropped sharply as a result of the Swine Flu episode by 41%.
Holidays to Barbados fell by 53% and even popular countries with homes owned by the British felt the pinch. Portugal lost 29%, and the two countries that did well were Egypt and Sri Lanka.

Egypt was seen to offer value and Sri Lanka peace.

2010 started better, as figures from the British Airports Authority suggest. However acts of God and man have conspired to reverse the trend. First we had snow, then a British Airways strike by cabin crew, Volcanic debris from Iceland and now another bout of machismo by Willie Walsh.

Unite, the Trade Union has announced 20 days of strikes, unless management abandons its plans to cut crew numbers and change employment terms.

Supporters of the Chief Executive see him as a strong and astute manager. His opponents claim he has his priorities in the wrong order. The British traveller think that the contest will do British Airways irreparable harm.
So much for "The World's favourite airline"

What lessons can we draw from all these events?

Long haul traffic to the East and Southern hemisphere whilst affected by the British Airways dispute, and the cancellations caused by the Iceland volcano, still represents great potential.

Airlines can learn from the way British Airways handled the two crises in PR terms.

And the adage :"It's an ill wind that doesn't blow somebody some good " still applies.

Omid and the Meercat

2010-02-01T16:31:00.007Z

Motor insurance premiums have apparently risen by 18%.

Is this a fact or merely the industry's wishful thinking?

It's easy to see why they need a rise in premiums. Although this is a massive business worth £13 billion, it remains only marginally profitable. Claims, some fraudulent have increased and there are now a large number of uninsured drivers. However intense competition, particularly in the shape of advertising, £109 million's worth last year, has surely put a dampener on price rises.

Price comparison sites are now the new breed of broker and they spend a lot of money on the box. Some of them produce memorable advertising too. Can you forget the Russian meercat Alexandr and his catchphrase "Simples"?

All this activity suggests that there is very little loyalty in the market. According to an IPSOS/MORI study, three quarters of policy holders shop around when it is renewal time. And they get three quotes before committing. In this scenario, a renewal notice, from the insurer which has not been prior checked on a price comparison site is inviting defection.

Clearly price and price increases are key influencing factors. Past experience is also important. Disgruntled motorists complain about difficulties in sorting out claims. This is important because one in six policies are claimed against.

Like other business sectors, establishing trust is vital and especially so in the finance industry. Trust helps keep customers. And it is more expensive to acquire new ones.

Finally, do you know who writes the most motor policies?

It's the Royal Bank of Scotland. They own Churchill and a few others. And we own the RBS.

Creative Magic.

2010-01-25T17:02:00.004Z

I heard from an old friend last week.
We had lost touch many years ago and he found me through Google.
Chris Sharpe is a talented creative man who played the piano beautifully. He had been the creative director at Masius, then the second largest advertising firm in London.
BacoFoil was one of the many grocery brands we handled. Advertising appeared on television in November and December, because most of the year’s sales occurred at Christmas time.
The client came to the Agency for the annual pre-campaign meeting. My bit was simple. Television was the automatic choice of medium and there was little planning involved in the days when ITV was the only commercial station available.
The star performance would be the presentation of the TV commercial.
But Chris had not done the work and since the meeting could not be postponed, he had to think fast.
At the meeting he said:

"Gentlemen, you have a great product but despite our strenuous efforts we couldn't come up with a commercial that did your brand justice. Until last night. We came up with an idea that we liked so much that we threw out our earlier efforts to concentrate on this new notion. There was no time to produce storyboards, so I will just tell you about our advertisement.
First lets start with the proposition:
Wrapping a turkey with BacoFoil reduces dehydration losses. We have tested this and discovered that a BacoFoil wrapped turkey has an extra one and a half portion than an unwrapped bird.
Now we need a catch phrase.
Your oven ready turkey isn't ready for the oven till it's wrapped in BacoFoil
Every time we mention BacoFoil, the word will shimmer out of the foil.
Now we give it pace and wrap it around a Christmas carol.
Your oven ready turkey isn't ready for the oven till it's wrapped in BacoFoil. (Imagine this and add the shimmer of the brand logo on the screen).
The camera shows a warmly lit home with the family around the table which features the Christmas turkey. Outside in a snow-covered garden, two boys are singing the BacoFoil carol.
One is tall and his friend quite small.
The end shot shows the young boys invited to join the family at Christmas dinner. The voice-over makes it clear that this generosity is possible because BacoFoil has delivered one and a half extra portions"

Chris Sharpe sat down to enthusiastic applause.

Could this happen now in our over researched world?

Advertising spend trends in the recession.

2009-07-16T16:31:00.008Z

For a while it looked like there was no stopping the Internet advertising juggernaut.
In 2008, it accounted for £3,350 million in advertising expenditure -19.3% of all advertising revenue in the UK. Its growth rate was an impressive 19.1% since 2007,when all other media showed a decline of 8.5%.
The reality that has eluded most commentators is that the Internet is in the main a classified advertising vehicle. 77% of its revenue in 2008 came from this form of advertising. Paid for search is its main generator of income. It is the equivalent of yellow pages and Google dominate the market in paid for search.
In a recession all types of advertising suffer.
In 2008, online display advertising - banners, skyscrapers and MPU’s accounted for 5.6% of total display advertising. New estimates from Nielsen Media research suggest that the Internet’s share of display advertising dropped to 3.5% during the first half of 2009.
If this is so, then it’s bad news for mainstream media owners who have led the surge of investment in on-line display advertising infrastructures. Even shrewd newspaper barons bought into Internet ventures like My Space without working out a financial model for recouping their investment. ITV paid a very large sum for Friends Reunited and only now have publicly announced their decision to wash their hands of it.
Quality newspapers have discovered that their on-line readers are younger and more mass market than their newspaper counterparts and as such less valuable.
Newspaper on-line inventory is ending up with blind networks for a fraction of their rate card price.
Advertising Agencies who invested in digital expertise and systems have discovered the days of high margins are over. In truth there is an over supply of online display opportunities. Advertisers once very keen, are now repenting their early enthusiasm.
Another digital collapse is imminent.
This is not to say that Search has had its day. Advertisers with transactional web sites will still exploit the Internet, but they will look for better bargains.
The absurdly high cost of demanded key words, like cheap car insurance, is over.

Another year and another travel health scare.

2009-07-03T14:47:00.002Z

It’s as if the tourism industry didn’t have enough troubles. Everywhere there’s the spectre of recession. The strength of the Euro and the US Dollar, relative to Sterling has adversely affected tourism prospects in the Eurozone and the USA. Airline traffic has fallen in BAA airports by 11.3 % in March 2009 compared to the same month in 2008.
Destinations more dependent on international tourism are acutely aware of how precarious the situation has become. And yet………..
In the UK, householders with tracker mortgages are now much better off, and once the supply/demand equilibrium has been re-established, things will begin to get better for all of us. Recessions end when people get tired of feeling poor and begin to regain their nerve. One sign will be if the two months of March and April 2009 show encouraging airline traffic. Easter was in April this year, so by comparing these combined months in 2009 and 2008, we will cancel out the Easter timing effects.
There are a number of things you can do to mitigate the effects of the recession.
1. Keep in touch with past guests. Most hotels retain addresses and some actually keep in touch at Christmas and on birthdays. Co-ordinate a direct mail campaign with private sector partners and offer special “friends” incentives for them to revisit.
2. Encourage ex-pats to come home for a visit. Scotland has done this in 2009, but doesn’t mean you cannot do so too. Ask them to re-acquaint themselves with the culture, beauty and friendliness of their homeland. Special events could be held in the towns and villages, with local hotels offering special rates. The idea is thank these economic migrants for their financial support.
3. Promote your green credentials In particular, solar technology, re-greening of the towns, country and hill sides, reduction in carbon emissions, marine parks, successes in conservation and so on.
4. Develop your niche markets. Find ways of creating new reasons to visit. Cultural events like jazz festivals, yachting regattas, kite surfing contests, and special golf tournaments such as the ones organised by Dubai.
5. Work closely with private sector partners. Hoteliers, airlines, ground handlers, tour operators and travel agents. India offers incentives to visiting travel agents. Hotels are already offering additional free nights and ground handlers throwing in local excursions for free. Airlines can offer subsidised upgrades and everyone can be encouraged to do more.
6. More than ever, ensure that your country is kept at the forefront of prospective visitor’s minds. Ad spends on tourism products amounts to £441 Million in 2008. Maintain your share of voice and be relevant. Tell prospects that the country is beautiful sure, but emphasise its unique differences. If possible stress affordability. Say visiting is essential, not discretionary. Tell them that a holiday in your country is very special, not a commodity experience.
7. Mount an integrated campaign that joins seamlessly, press relations, above and below the line activity including on-line.
8. And don’t forget to have a well planned and well rehearsed crisis management programme in place. I hope you will never need to implement it.

The land of wonder.

2009-06-26T13:39:00.003Z

Australia is truly a land of wonder, but it’s not an easy sell to British tourists. It shares a problem with another attractive country – New Zealand.
Their distance from the UK makes short holidays impractical, which explains why the British holiday taker spends an average of six weeks in either country. Many of those long stay tourists are from both ends of the age divide, young backpackers and retired folk with time to spare.
Australia has had problems with its communication in the recent past, most notably about objections to their “Where the bloody hell are you?” campaign.
I rather liked it. It was brash and very Australian, but enough people objected and it was withdrawn, underlying the case for pre-publication ad research.
Australia’s visitors from Britain numbered 493,000 in 2008, exactly 100,000 less than in 2006. New Zealand, despite some attractive and persuasive ads lost 25% of British tourists in the same period.
Both countries need something special in their communication policy, and Australia has started its journey of innovation.
Hamilton island is a beautiful island off the Great Barrier Reef and has been the setting of two films screened across the world: “Muriel's Wedding “ and “Fool's Gold “. In August, the island hosts the popular week-long yacht races in which 150 boats compete, culminating in a big beach party on Whitehaven day.
The Queensland government decided Hamilton Island needed a caretaker.
Ben Southall won the challenge. He beat 35,000 other hopefuls and will spend six months on the idyllic island off the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.
Mr. Southall will have his romantic stay shared by his Canadian girlfriend and get paid a whopping 75,000 Aussie dollars to boot. His job is to swim, snorkel, explore, relax and occasionally write a blog about his positive experiences.
The real winner is of course the Australian tourist board, who have garnered tons of free publicity worldwide, estimated at $100 million Australian dollars, on television and in the press. Queensland’s premier Ms Anna Bligh, no relation to the infamous Captain of the Bounty, said it was the most successful tourism campaign in history.
This PR exercise will be backed by an ad campaign worth $1.7 million.
No one could possibly object to this stunt and many, including me, will applaud and wish Queensland every success

Recession or the slippery slope to disaster?

2008-10-06T15:40:00.006Z

The news is bad and gets worse each day. We have moved from a subprime problem that only affected the feckless and the poor who the financial sages said “should have known better”, to a full blown financial crisis orchestrated by the clever chaps in banking circles who taught us that not only was debt good, but that it was essential to the global economy.

Now governments are rushing to rescue these financial institutions in the USA, the UK, Germany and China. Other European legislators are cautiously pointing to flaws in this type of support. They encourage risk taking without pressing for better and tighter regulations. Giving money to people who cannot pay their mortgages only delays foreclosure and even governments can only borrow so much.

Commentators in London expect that Government borrowings will rise from £63.3 billion in 2008/9 to £90.1 billion in the next financial year. This means that debt will exceed 43.3 % of the gross domestic product by 2010/11, considerably higher than the so-called sustainable investment rule, which stipulates a ceiling of 40%.

For people, anxious to get onto the housing ladder the news is mixed. House prices are down by nearly 15%, but lenders are being more cautious and demand higher deposits. Homeowners who don’t have an urgent need to sell are staying put. The results-an even greater fall in approved mortgage applications of about 40% in August.

Imported inflation on fuel and food prices are adding to the general gloom and most people are feeling poorer. They have responded by reducing their driving mileage, switching off the lights, turning the thermostat down a couple of degrees and shopping more in discount stores.

In the travel industry, the fall-out includes airlines like EOS, MAXJET SILVERJET, ZOOM and XL. Fuel is the highest single cost for airlines so expect further failures, consolidations, closures of routes and flight cancellations. Even national airlines are not exempt, as Alitalia’s troubles make clear.

Tour operators are consolidating but as Thomas Cook and TUI are finding out it is difficult to raise the standards of rescued companies to that of the White Knight.

Carbon emissions are a handy excuse to reconsider travel abroad, though the terrible British summer of 2008 might cause people to reconsider the domestic option.

So whilst Spain may suffer, Turkey and countries further east, with reputations for good value may fare better, particularly now that more efficient aircraft like the Airbus 380 and the Dreamliner are coming on stream.

The British love their holidays and will be loath to abandon their trips to sunnier climes. However unemployment or the fear of redundancy may make people reassess their priorities. Now it is even more important to keep your Brand top of mind when planning your marketing campaigns.

Do countries need a brand identity?

2008-06-05T15:07:00.006Z

Australia is apparently rethinking its advertising approach to tourism. Some countries were upset by the current advertisements which ask: “Where the bloody hell are you?”.

Personally I liked the line. It has the brash good humoured charm we expect from our friends down under. Anecdotal evidence suggests that most British people also found this appeal credible and persuasive. However this acceptance was not matched in Japan who now send fewer tourists to Australia.

It proves that culture and customs are still different across the world,
even in today’s global village.

Perhaps the British attitude is informed by our shared history and
their ready willingness to fight by our side in two bloody world wars.
They sacrificed a lot of young men to help protect their cousins half the earth away.

Now the Australian authorities are to develop an all encompassing
brand identity which will hopefully reflect all the positive elements
that make the country what it is.

A country’s image is affected by its geography, geology, history, people, politics, economy and its position in the world. Branding a country is therefore a complex task, since we are talking not just about tourism, but also exports, off shore banking, foreign and domestic policy, inward bound investments, culture and
heritage.

The danger is projecting an identity that conflicts with current
perception. Psychologists call this ‘cognitive dissonance’.

Countries that need a new and credible image, need to adapt rapidly and there is usually not the will or resources to do it.

Consider three countries as examples.

Sri Lanka is an ancient land, culturally interesting with a strong rooting in Buddhism. It offers great value for tourists, wide sandy beaches, wild elephants, but once again in turmoil because of the actions of the Tamil tigers.

China is a huge country, accounting for a quarter of the world’s population. Many peasants are poor, though there is a burgeoning urban middle class. It is home to one of the great civilisations but currently ruled by a repressive totalitarian regime with a bad human rights record at home and in Tibet which they occupy illegally. They are the hosts for this years Olympics and have just suffered a calamitous earth quake.

Indonesia has the worlds greatest concentration of Muslims and a source of militant Islamism. Bali, is one of their beautiful islands, inhabited by gentle Buddhists and favoured by Australian tourists. It was targeted twice by terrorists.

Perhaps all most countries need is correct positioning for each of their many target sectors.

New Zealand provides incentives for film makers. Much was achieved by the shooting of the ‘Lord of the Rings’ trilogy, which was watched by millions all over the world.

The ad concept of ‘Pure’ is simply true and stronger for the lack of hyperbole.

Egypt cleverly positioned their Red Sea resorts by describing the strip as the Red Sea Riviera. This succeeded in shifting the perception of the place from the Middle east and all that implies to Europe, safe and sophisticated.

Branding a country with a universal message may be very difficult.

Repositioning a country differently for its different targets may be all that’s needed.

Tourism - a bumpy ride ahead?

2008-05-12T11:39:00.003Z

The tourism industry is set for a turbulent time.

Oil has just reached a record high of $120 per barrel. Ethanol production, touted as the green alternative has now attracted criticism as the cause of lower food production and subsequent higher prices. Butanol, Richard Branson’s alternative fuel aircraft may be a passing phenomenon.

More serious is the growing consciousness that human activity is the cause of global warming, serious storms and human tragedies. Flying is believed to be the worst offending act. Since giving up holidays completely is not an option, ways of salving our green conscience will be sought. One way is taking at least one holiday each year in the UK. Kelkoo, a price comparison site reports a 39% increase in the number of people searching for UK holidays.

For overseas destinations however, a demonstration of the measures being taken to combat global warming is required. Tropical countries should be getting more of their energy needs from the Sun with solar panels and photo voltaic cells. Another renewable source is hydro-power. ICELANDAIR trumpets their green credentials in their advertising: “Discover the source of green energy”, is the headline with an image of waterfalls.

Another measure is offering greener vehicles, particularly for tourists. Hertz has a green collection of cars that meet the EU’s 2008 voluntary target of 140g/km C02 Output. Avis offers natural gas cars in Germany and Hybrids in Portugal. The real breakthrough may be in Electric cars. Carlos Ghosn, the Chief Executive of Nissan has embarked on an ambitious plan to dominate this sector by the year 2012. He is confident that improved batteries and the problem of speedier re-charging will be solved soon. The country that adopts this technology will reduce smogs caused by traffic jams and generally improve the quality of the air.

Planting more trees is another ideal. A Swedish tour operator has bought land in Malta and plants one tree for every tourist he flies in. Governments should not rely on such generosity. Sugar cane fields should be bordered by long lasting trees like jacaranda, and Le flamboyant for beauty and Tamarind, Neem and Jamboul for usefulness. Such a strip would have the added advantage of being a fire break. Off shore and uninhabited islands could be made green havens to encourage endangered bird species and wherever possible new mangrove plantations could be created to make habitats for fish nurseries.

Governments could also provide incentives for hoteliers who provide green eco-friendly resorts. According to the Sunday Times Travel magazine, The Jet wing hotel in Sri Lanka recycles its waste and pays local farmers to produce organic produce.

The idea of getting local people to benefit is a good thing. The Feynan Eco lodge in Jordan is run on solar power and is run by Bedouin in collaboration with Jordan’s Royal society for the conservation of nature. The ll Ngwesi is an eight room thatched lodge in Kenya’s uplands that also runs on solar power. The Masai who help manage it get 40% of the profits.

The time has passed when tourist boards had only to organise themselves for growth. Growing tourist numbers or even maintaining your share will depend on how efficiently you anticipate social and political trends and prepare for them.

Are we talking ourselves into a recession or are we already in one?

2008-01-22T16:16:00.000Z

Recessions are usually characterised by a decline in economic activity over three quarters.

This is typically accompanied by falls in consumer confidence and spending, caused by price inflation, rising unemployment and a bear stock market.

The stock market has more red ink than black and share prices in sectors such as banking, property and retail have taken a particular pounding. Financial companies, particularly those involved in the USA’s sub prime shambles have suffered badly.

Some might say that their plight has more to do with greed, fraud and incompetence than general economic woes.

And a correction in house prices has been anticipated for at least two years when the ratios between wages, rents and house prices began their journey into economic craziness. The Economist in 2005 said that prices would fall by 20%, proving again that it is possible to forecast events or timing, but rarely both correctly.

Problems in the high street are being presented as another indicator of the recession and though Marks and Spencer has had a decline of 2.5 % in their Christmas sales, John Lewis at one end and Primark at the other have done well. Online sales are on the up.

So what is really happening?

Unemployment is falling. Oil prices as defined by Brent Crude are 10% down on the $100 dollars a barrel threshold. Inflation is still a risk which is why interest rates remain on hold. If consumers rein in their spending it will be no bad thing and if savings ratios start rising again, that’s all to the good.

In the advertising industry, a slump in ad spend is indicated by the IPA’s Bellwether report. Advertising activity is a function of corporate liquidity and consumer spending.

Previous recessions point out the dangers inherent in reducing communication investment in times of economic slowdowns. It will be even more damaging now that we have more knowledgeable and empowered consumers.

But advertising weight alone is not enough, nor clever creative advertisements.

Emulate Steve Jobs whose Apple showroom in Regents Street is one example of how to do it correctly. Give people what they want and they will besiege your store.

Supping with the devil

2007-09-03T14:23:00.000Z

The big multiple supermarket chains are a powerful bunch. In many areas of food and drink retailing they control three quarters of all items sold. Their success is based on the solid marketing principle of supplying products that their customers want, at prices they can afford.

This good value pricing policy is possible partly to the economies of scale created by buying in bulk. The competitive nature of retailing means that most of these savings are passed onto the consumer. However since the retailers have so much power they can exert a great deal of excessive pressure on the smaller suppliers.

Now the Competition Commission is demanding access to hundreds of e-mails sent by Tesco and Asda, purportedly demanding further retrospective discounts to fuel a price war between these two groups over the summer.

Why should such practices cause such surprise?

Supermarkets have been doing this for years. Suppliers have been asked to contribute to deals such as “Buy one, get one free”, and provide specially deep price cuts from time to time. Some supermarket groups insist that their own procurement experts advise suppliers how to remain solvent whilst discounting to a greater extent.

Supermarkets also demand contributions to their own marketing campaigns and many smaller companies forego their own branding needs in order to pay these levies.

This is always a mistake.

Do not let supermarkets do your marketing for you. All they are interested in is increased store traffic. They will use your money to increase footfalls but don’t care if customers buy your product as long as they buy something.

In the travel industry, tour operators acted just like supermarkets till the internet weakened the packaged holiday sector. Like supermarkets they offer customers a range of options and don’t really care if the customers choose your country or another, provided it’s bought from them. It still occurs today when overseas operators with strong airline links can offer the Tourist Boards of smaller countries the prospect of increased tourists.

But be warned, once you agree to this demand, you will have to offer all tour operators and airlines similar levels of support.

And when you stop, many will fold their tents and steal away.

Can we stop the fat lady singing?

2007-08-28T14:39:00.000Z

We have stopped laughing at the Germans. They used to be the fattest people in Europe. Now we are.

23% of women and 22% of men in Britain are now defined as clinically obese, according to the European Union’s statistical office. Obesity is defined by a formula called the Body Mass Index (BMI) composed of two simple factors - height and weight.

The formula is:

Ideal weight in kilograms divided by height in metres squared = 20% to 25%.

You are regarded as overweight if the BMI score is in excess of 25% and obese if it exceeds 30%.

Very fit weight lifters will fail this test, so perhaps a simpler measure would be waist size and its relation with the chest measurement for men and hips for women. The waist should be at least 8 inches less than their chest for men and for women about 8 inches less than their hips.

The British Government’s figures suggest that two out of three men are overweight and the figure for women is only slightly less.

This is a very worrying situation, since it means a greater incidence of heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, raised cholesterol levels and cancers of the prostate and womb.

One of the actions taken by the government body OFCOM is to ban the advertising of processed foods that are high in fat, sugar and salt in TV programmes where the majority of the audience is 14 years or younger. The reaction of the advertising industry has been less than considered. After all, we invented, or at least promoted, tasty products that were loaded with the most dangerous elements such as transfats, simple sugars and excessive salts.

And now it seems that some advertisers are trying to compensate from the absence from TV by using the internet to sell their unhealthy foods to children.

Skittles, the sweet brand has apparently spent more than £100,000 to set up a profile on the social networking site “Bebo” seeking young ambassadors for their brand. Other advertisers on the internet are McDonalds, Starburst and Haribo. They do this partly because the internet is outside OFCOM’s remit.

Obesity is linked with poverty and poor education. We cannot compel people to eat sensibly or exercise regularly, but neither should we give carte blanche to parts of the food industry who are concerned with the hitherto easy profits in unhealthy products.

The property factor and the effects on tourism

2007-07-31T11:18:00.000Z

Financial analysts are worried about the property sector and how a collapse here could trigger a mudslide affecting the economies of many European countries.

Take Ireland for instance which showed the greatest increase in house prices in the E.U. since 1995. Domestic property prices fell in April, the first decrease in five years.

In France, housing starts have declined for the first time in six years and in Spain where unfettered development over the years is being challenged by a crash in the value of shares in developers and builders.

The European Central bank, preoccupied with Germany’s depressed economy reduced interest rates overall to 2%, far too low for the bubbling economies of France and Ireland. As a result, their property prices soared. Bank interest has since risen in seven rapid steps to 3.75% and expected to reach 4.25% soon. This has meant a doubling of mortgage payments with its inevitable consequences.

In Britain, the Chancellor has been more aware of the impact of low interest rates on inflation, and here a wholesale crash is unlikely. A number of factors will affect house prices in the next twelve months. One is the dampening effect of stamp duty. According to the Centre of Economic and Business Research, stamp duty will generate £7 billion for the Exchequer in this fiscal year. This has affected sales and currently only 7% of the housing stock is in transaction compared to 9% in the 1980s. Demand is been generated also by overseas buyers from Russia and India who see London as a particularly desirable place to live. In other areas it’s the “buy to let” market sector that has restricted house availability.

The new Prime Minister, Mr Gordon Brown, recognises the shortage in supply and promises to build 200,000 new “affordable” homes each year, but some of the land available is flood plains and the hazards they pose have been evident in recent days.

Britain will therefore avert an all out property crash but by 2008, prices will stagnate. The British and more seriously affected citizens of Ireland, France, Spain and Poland will feel less rich and that should affect their spending on other things such as retail goods and possibly travel. Home improvement may do well, because house owners who postpone a move to more expensive properties may choose to invest in their current homes with conservatories and the like.

However for countries that depend on tourism one way of boosting visitors is to make it easier for them to buy a home in your country. They will then visit more often, stay longer, spend more and encourage friends and relations to come too. Some enterprising owners will let their property to other people from their own country. All this will raise tourist numbers.

Since 1998, British visitors to Portugal have risen by 48%. Spain has enjoyed the same level of success, whilst trips to Italy have grown by 66%.

Much of this happened because of more cheaper flights by bargain airlines, an older and affluent UK population and a feeling of greater wealth caused by rapidly rising UK property prices. Your house is worth more, so you feel wealthier, save less and even borrow against your growing house assets.

Apparently more than 300,000 properties abroad are owned by the British. Political stability, warm climate, lots of inexpensive flights to convenient airports and affordable property have made Southern Europe so popular.

Judging by the advertisements on television and in the press, countries like Bulgaria, Egypt’s Red Sea Riviera and Dubai are also seeking the British house buyer.

However property abroad will have to grow in value and generate income from lets to offset initial purchase prices. With so many countries jumping the bandwagon there is an oversupply of such homes.

Selling houses to foreigners may help boost tourist numbers, but the basic laws of economics still apply.

Demand must match supply or there will be tears at suppertime.

Advertising on the Internet - a threat to conventional advertising agencies?

2007-07-06T14:24:00.000Z

The Internet as an advertising medium has been an amazing success. Last year it took over two billion pounds in advertising revenue in the UK and accounted for 10.6 % of all advertising spends.

Even more impressive was its relative speed of growth. In 2001 Internet ad spend was £166 million accounting for just 1 % of the total. Between 2005 and 2006 alone, Internet advertising grew by 48%.

This has panicked traditional service providers into jumping on the bandwagon without much understanding of how and where future returns on this new and large investment was to come from.

Consider where the Internet gets its advertising revenue.

77% of total revenue is classified advertising. Two-thirds of this is for search, an electronic and creatively more exciting version of the old directory advertising. Google dominates the search industry in the UK and elsewhere. None of its rivals have been anywhere near as successful.

Much of search advertising reaches people researchers describe as “engaged”. The distinction is between people who need to be “interrupted” from their usual preoccupations as when, seeing an advertisement for a chocolate bar, you stop at the local newsagent and buy the brand on impulse.

Engaged people are seeking, actively or casually, information about a specific category, product or service.

Advertising is not the only way to reach these people. Brands can raise their internet profile by clever web site design using more relevant copy, careful repetition and providing more information so that Googles web crawlers find it and push it higher up the rankings.

Advertisers can then also use search optimisation by buying specific keywords in an auction bid system. Actual keyword choices become important. Some advertisers use their competitors’ brand names to redirect their traffic. Knowing what price to bid is also very important.

Other than search, of the rest of classified internet advertising, £202 million is accounted for by the online recruitment sector. That slice of the cake is dominated by online specialist operators who account for two-thirds of this spend. Newspapers are making a strong bid to retain their minority share.

Which brings us to the area of traditional “interruptive “and brand advertising. In the internet online display field, banners, buttons, skyscrapers and interstitials rule.

Few advertising agencies regard this as mainstream.
After all it is difficult to be creative in such a limited format. Yet many advertisers think that all advertising on the internet is waste free. I wonder if John Wanamaker who first said: "I know that half my advertising is wasteful, I just don’t know which half " would agree with this view of the internet

Is Innovation potentially as destructive as planned obsolescence?

2007-04-23T14:04:00.001Z

Brand obsolescence was a bogeyman word to describe the alleged strategy adopted by manufacturers of consumer durables who built a failure feature into the design of their product. That way, products with new features would be bought earlier than needed, keeping the factories busy and the retailer’s tills ringing.

In reality manufacturers were not that clever or consumers that stupid. David Ogilvy over forty years ago said it best:”The consumer is not a moron. She is your wife.”

Now competition and market saturation has spawned a new type of innovation that is destroying markets and brands. Take the digital camera business for instance.

The market is large, worth about £800 million and still growing. The problems however are quite serious. The technology allows new companies not previously in the field of cameras to enter. Companies like Hewlett Packard, Sony, Fuji and Kodak are all major players. These new players have been very innovative, but as far as the customer is concerned, no manufacturer appears to have a competitive edge in terms of technological features, pixel capacity, ease of use or price.

And as pixel capacity, anti shake and red eye features are introduced, prices are falling. In 2003, the average digital camera offered 2 million pixels and cost £160. Now 4 million pixels with newer features will cost £120.

So, why would you buy a camera which will be outdated very quickly and when the newer models with greater capacity and more features will be cheaper tomorrow?

Any why then will the manufacturer invest in large runs of specific models when a high number of unsold cameras will fill up depot space? Small runs generate low promotional budgets, further exacerbating the long term health of the brand.

Part of the pressure on prices is also accounted for by the increase in distribution points. Sales in specialist shops like Jessops have declined, while Boots, Tesco and Asda now are significant in terms of sales. These generalist retailers are not interested in offering a range of products or indeed of brands. The internet however can provide both.

Grey importers now offer products at prices cheaper than the official ones given to the managers of the very brands in the UK.

Convergence of technologies mean that quality digital cameras can also offer ipod music, downloaded TV and video, and mobile phone services too.

More likely it will be the other way around with mobile phones taking the lead. Will Ericsson and Nokia become the new leaders in the converged market?

Analysts have warned that falling prices have affected the profitability of all brands. This year will be a test of resolve. For some famous brands it’s already too late as Minolta’s exit from the digital market indicates.

Brand Equity: Is it not worth thinking about?

2007-04-13T13:24:00.000Z

Brands are not what they used to be. Once a brand was a symbol of reassurance. If a manufacturer put his brand on a product it indicated his confidence in the item to deliver if not quality at least consistency. The product delivered what it said on the package..

This appears not to be so as far as Ribena is concerned. Two Kiwi school girls discovered in their chemistry lab that Ribena, despite claims in its advertising contained virtually no Vitamin C. They took their findings to the company and were allegedly given short shrift. The New Zealand government took them more seriously and when their own tests revealed a similar lack of the vital vitamin, banned the said advertisement and imposed a hefty fine on top. The story was then reported on television stations and newspapers worldwide. You would have thought that adding some Vitamin C would have been inexpensive. I don’t know if Ribena in the rest of the world has the requisite amount of the vitamin but it should. That would be at least honest. Now much of the advertising investment of £5.7million in the UK in 2006 appears to be wasted and we‘ve played into the hands of those who think that advertisers and their agency advisers are all a bunch of charlatans. And grocery multiples, who take their own image seriously may refuse to stock the brand too.

Sadly its not only grocery brands that mismanage their brands franchise.

The Sunday Times reported the case of Charlotte Maltese. a young woman murdered in 2005.She had an insurance policy with the Norwich Union. who refused to pay out because she failed to disclose in her application form that she had had a smear test. Prior to this excuse they had claimed the beneficiary should be her boyfriend, but dropped this pathetic excuse when it was pointed out that as her murderer, he could not benefit from a criminal act. Incidentally, the smear test showed some abnormal cells, but nothing wrong with her health. Close friend Agostina Murgia said: ”Norwich Union seems to be trying every cynical trick to avoid paying up “

Last night on BBC1s Watchdog programme, its millions of viewers were warned that critical illness policies were the worst in paying up. Insurers apparently trawl through medical records, not just of the insured person but also of other family members. Over 1 in 5 claims are rejected. The programme warned that people who think they are covered against the onset of a dread disease should check their policies carefully

Imagine on top of the bad news about your health you are told that the money you were counting on to pay the mortgage and keep the family while you were treated will not be forthcoming.

Now no intelligent Marketing Director responsible for marketing and advertising budgets of several million pounds will deliberately let his brand equity be damaged by such callous behaviour. It follows therefore that company policy may be dictated to a greater degree by the financial people.
Some of them don’t appreciate the fragile nature of brands.

The Television Wars

2007-03-09T16:35:00.000Z

Television is once again hot stuff. Two media barons are fighting a very public war for dominance of the airwaves.

Richard Branson, the people’s champion, is contesting big, bad Rupert Murdoch’s right to a swingeing increase in costs for Virgin Media, a cable operator, to carry Sky TV programmes. Sky apparently want a 75% increase and Virgin are allegedly prepared to pay 30% more. The result, an impasse, and Virgin now do not offer popular programmes like 'The Simpsons'.

Sky will lose up to £60 million a year income which it stood to earn from Virgin who now have a diminished portfolio of channels and programmes to offer its customer base. Both have taken their case to the public via press and television advertising.

Virgin, playing little David, complains of bullying, and Goliath in the form of young James Murdoch offers Virgin customers an opportunity to switch.

In reality the battle is much more than a negotiation hurdle. It is about control of the biggest commercial broadcaster in the country. ITV is the real prize. Branson wanted a stake in ITV but a surprise move by Sky resulted in them owning 17.9% of ITV. Mr Murdoch is now the biggest media owner in Britain with significant interests in newspapers in the form of the Times/Sunday Times and at the Sun/News of the World. His ownership of Fox in the States provides programme material and he also has rights to broadcast a number of key sporting events in the UK. So could it be a battle fought at Mr Murdoch’s convenience?

In the past his opponents have been complacent and underestimated the skill and energy this Australian outsider brought to the battlefield. Richard Branson will not make this mistake. His longer term objective now must be to acquire Channel 5 and invest in programme production and in the acquisition of broadcasting rights for sporting programmes, all of which will be very expensive.

The interesting thing is the money that funds Sky and Virgin Media as apart from the terrestrial broadcasters like ITV comes from different sources. Sky and Virgin get 90% of their income from customer subscription whilst ITV get almost all their income from advertisers. The advent of Freeview, set top boxes, satellite transmissions and cable delivery mean that viewers have more choice than ever before. The result is smaller audiences per channel. ITV has suffered particularly.

Despite what they think, ITV is not a strong brand. Popular programmes are the strong brands and these are increasingly being showcased on a variety of channels. If ITV is to regain some of its lost ground, it has to go back to its strong programming heritage. Michael Grade knows this. He may carp about the government’s lack of support and be rightly apprehensive of Mr Murdoch’s ambitions, but he knows that the glory days of monopoly and captive audiences have gone forever. Survival will depend on a strong franchise of popular programmes created by his own team of producers.

Like the Chinese curse: these are interesting times for the companies involved. However, when the dust has settled and digital television sets are in every home, will the prize be worth the effort?

The big hello and its effect on tourist numbers

2007-02-14T11:32:00.000Z

Visitors to the United States of America have declined quite dramatically.

Even people in countries which ally themselves to the USA are finding other destinations more attractive. British visitors were 10% fewer compared to 2005,a surprising fact when one takes into account the value generated by an attractive rate of exchange.

One explanation is the problems of the new entry conditions and many of these could have been handled better. Another may be the real and growing unpopularity of the President.

Perhaps the overwhelming concern is the perceived unfriendliness of the American people.

On Sunday February 11th, a primetime BBC show “Top Gear” featured a journey by the show’s three idiosyncratic presenters, by road, from Miami to New Orleans. They behaved in the provocative way they always do, and were met by a great deal of aggression. Jeremy Clarkson ended the show by pointing out that the richest nation in the world had done very little to repair the damage done to New Orleans one year after Hurricane Katrina. To the Americans he said, " Shame on you", and advised British viewers not to go to the USA.

Over 4 million visits were made to the States in 2006 by the British and. this kind of publicity will make the task of the people responsible for tourism much harder.

Is it possible to brand a country?

Some countries have attempted to, and it is a very complex task. A country’s image is composed of its geography, history, economy, culture and position. Its brand identity involves foreign and domestic policy, business, trading patterns, religion, heritage as well as tourism.

It may not be possible to brand the USA in all its complexity, but it needs to address the problem posed by falling tourist numbers. My own experience in Boston suggests that most Americans are courteous and friendly. The perception of a lot of British people is, however, very different.

This perception needs to be addressed urgently.

Stupid cupidity and the exploiters

2007-02-08T15:44:00.001Z

The credit card business thrives on the cupidity and stupidity of some of their customers who spend more than they can afford and delude themselves into believing that the minimum repayment makes the debt manageable.

What the borrower fails to appreciate is that not only is the level of interest much higher than a normal bank loan, but the fine print hides a far greater cost penalty.

Assume you owe £7821.00 and repay £6753.00 on the appointed day. At 1.385% a month interest, you would expect to pay £14.79 in interest based on the unpaid sum of £1068.00.
In fact you would be asked to pay £166.92. That represents an interest rate of 15.62% per month or close to 200% per annum.

Why?

Because you are charged for the entire outstanding debt - in this case the whole £7821.00, despite the bulk of it being repaid on the due date, and because the interest is charged from the moments the purchases were made. In this example three weeks before the credit card bill arrived.

The financial behemoths eagerness to lend money to people in existing financial difficulties is well documented. They thrive on Micawber type misery.

Banks also operate in the “sub prime” loans market. The HSBC, one of the top three banks in the world sensed an opportunity in lending money for house purchases, to people who wouldn’t otherwise qualify. In the United States, this has already backfired with fraud and defaults rising to record levels. Over here, the number of sub prime lenders tout their wares on television with offers to “consolidate” debts, or by remortaging their homes, allow borrowers to spend their own money on whatever they choose. The cost? More than their existing mortgage provider would charge.

And new predators are advertising their helpful services. They offer people with unmanageable debt a way out by exploiting a voluntary scheme whereby only a proportion of the sums owed needs to be repaid. Inevitably this service comes at a cost.

There really isn’t such a thing as a free lunch.

Can the last person to leave, please switch off the lights?

2007-02-06T12:25:00.000Z

You have to admire someone like Gordon Sato. A successful scientist in the United States of America, he now helps the government of Eritrea to grow mangroves.

In six years, 700,000 mangroves now grow on what was once a barren and treeless coast of Hergigo. Camels are fed the leaves, fish flourish in the sheltered shallows and a new eco-system is being created. Mr Sato is 79.

Indonesia has also embraced the benefits of mangroves. Their protection against the power of tsunamis is well documented. Over a thousand acres in Bali have been replanted with, on average, 1300 saplings per acre. And if you visit Mauritius, look out for the new mangroves growing in the south.

Countries currently benefiting from the tourism induistry need to do more to secure their future because many of them could be adversely affected by rising seawater levels. Planting forests including mangroves is one option. Reducing their own consumption of imported fuel is another.

Travel to New Delhi and you will be pleasantly surprised by the reduction in smog levels. They know that air pollution contributes to incidence of heart disease.

All tourist destinations must be seen to be doing something to counteract the effects of airline travel. Richard Branson's team is working to develop butanol as an alternative aircraft fuel, but that will take years to be adopted by airlines.

Even President Bush, perhaps for other legitimate reasons, has plans to reduce his country's dependence on fossil fuels. Ethanol type alternatives will produce less harmful emissions.

Scientists are examining ways of extracting energy from sand and making our most abundant fossil fuel - coal - more eco-friendly. And solar power is already making a difference in India.

One hundred years ago, the problem of a burgeoning population of horse drawn carriages caused concern in London. The petrol engine eradicated that problem, but left another, bigger, mess that cannot be fed to rose bushes. Human ingenuity should not be underestimated, and especially now there are financial incentives.

If we do not believe that something can be done to make this small planet survive a bit longer, then like the dolphins in Douglas Adams' "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy", we should all fly off saying, "Thanks for the fish".

But we cannot fly off or be so selfish as to ignore a future of hazards for our grandchildren.

The dangers of sponsoring reality television

2007-02-02T16:04:00.000Z

Television reality shows are today’s equivalent of ancient Rome’s circuses. Instead of Christians being fed to hungry lions, naive and ill-prepared wannabees are exposed in all their frailty by so called expert judges. Many of them have monstrous egos.

Sometimes the contestants themselves are allowed to blunder into exposing their ignorance and lack of judgement, All this in the name of entertainment.

Why any right thinking person should want to see these embarrassing displays is something best left to psychologists. Much more interesting is why Advertisers would want to sponsor such shows. It cannot be for the quality of the audience. Lowest common denominator shows attract lowest common denominator viewers. So association by brand values isn’t the reason either.

Perhaps it’s the exaggerated reporting of the death of the 30 second commercial or persuasive selling by the sponsorship team that makes advertisers clamour to get on board. The dangers of supporting such high risk “entertainment” is now very clear and Charles Dunstone must be glad there was a get out clause in his contract with Channel 4.

Brands are such fragile things.

AXA Equity and Law do their sponsorship promotions very well. They support the nostalgic strand of programming on ITV 3,with specially written lines in programmes such as Rumpole of the Bailey: “I want to make sure my affairs are in order, order.” So successful is this campaign that it has been adopted by their sister company in India.

The lesson?

Make sure your brand really benefits with the programme by association, write clever strap lines, don’t rely exclusively on sponsorship and have a damage limitation campaign in place.

Concern for a world that may soon be lost

2007-01-17T17:15:00.000Z

There’s no escaping it. Concern for the environment will attract more government intervention and much more interest from the media.

Awareness of the damage done by aircraft emission may have already prompted small, but significant changes in holiday patterns. According to research done by AXA Insurance, more than 22.4 million Britons will holiday in Britain and Ireland. Many of them will also travel abroad, but home destinations will take up more of the short break market.

Scotland will promote itself as the world’s first carbon neutral destination and has set up a Green tourism business scheme and sustainable tourism partnership.

In Wales, William McNamara is building a holiday village in Narberth West Wales which he hopes will benefit from the surge of interest in the ecological balance. It will include a sub tropical water world with water rides and wave pools. He also plans to do a ‘Dubai’ with a ski centre and indoor ski slopes.

Business travellers are also embracing green travel policies.

Airlines will try to reduce their emissions, by flying aircraft made from lighter composite materials such as the ones used in the Boeing Dreamliner. Richard Branson has pledged future profits in a bid to create an environmentally friendly fuel – an equivalent of ethanol for the air. Additionally, Virgin has started testing the effects of towing its aircrafts to take-off positions in Gatwick and Heathrow. They hope to save 2 tonnes of aviation fuel per aircraft by this single decision. Other airlines are examining ways of offsetting their emissions by buying forests which otherwise may be susceptible to felling. All will be involved in carbon trading.

Overseas destinations have the potential to make a significant contribution as well. They can do a lot to prevent smog and pollution damaging their tourist business. Some will follow Brazil’s lead in the substitution of imported oil with Ethanol from sugar cane or other natural material such as corn husks. Other countries will re-green their countries with new forests including mangroves.

For most of them however, the biggest and most rapid response would be to embrace solar energy. The faster countries that import oil and have lots of sunshine do this, the sooner technology will bring prices of solar panels down to more affordable levels.

The countries that promote their green policies will definitely do better in attracting tourists than the ones who bury their heads in the deserts to come. Despite what the cynics claim, the British travelling public will make adjustments to their holiday habits, if they can see a benefit for the world which doesn’t overly hurt them financially. Enlightened altruism is the new mantra.